The Numbers Are In And The Numbers Are Not Good – Negative Trends Just About Everywhere In America
Article by Bruno Korschek
The unrelenting drum beat of negative economic news have become almost legends, given the their negative consistency for America:
- Unemployment rate – seems to be stuck around the 9% levels forever.
- 14 million Americans still unemployed.
- National debt – $ 14 TRILLION and climbing steadily towards $ 15 TRILLION.
But these are the hard core, distressing economic numbers. How are we doing as a nation from a confidence and attitude perspective?
Let’s start with a recent Zogby poll that was taken from a sample of 2,125 voters in late July and early August:
- More than two thirds of those polled, 69%, believe that American jobs lost during the recession are unlikely to ever return.- 69% also feel that the country’s days as the most powerful economy in the world are over.
- Only 17% of those polled felt businesses would add jobs, down from 23% from that felt that way a year ago.
A recent Pew Research international survey found that:
- In 15 of 22 nations where the poll was conducted, the majority of responses felt that China will either replace the U.S. as the world’s leading super power or has already done so.
- In the 15 countries where this is true, the feeling has increased substantially over the past two years, with the increase exceeding 10 or more percentage points in Spain, France, Pakistan, Britain, Jordan, Israel, Poland, and Germany.- In this country, the percentage of Americans saying that China will eventually overshadow the U.S. or already does has increased from 23% in 2009 to 46% in 2011.
Apparently the juvenile bickering over the debt ceiling debate did some serious damage to the country’s international reputation.
According to a recent CNN poll:
- Six out of every ten Americans think the economy is still getting worse.
- Three out of every four Americans believe the nation is doing badly.
- The jump in economic pessimism over the past two years is across every demographic and political subgroup within the survey, i.e., most Americans think the economy is in a downturn and is getting worse.
- Americans cannot even agree on whether the debt ceiling agreement had any merit with 48% approved of the deal but 50% disapproved of the deal.
According to a recent McClatchy-Marist poll:
- Almost seven out of ten Americans believe the economy will get worse before it gets better.
- Over 70% of Republicans and independents felt the economy is going to get worse and even a majority of Democrats, 57%, felt the worse is yet to come.
According to a recent Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey:
- The preliminary August finding saw the consumer sentiment index fall to 54.9, down from 63.7 in July.
- This is the lowest the index has been since 21 years ago in May, 1980, the last year of the Carter Presidency.- It was substantially below what the experts had been predicting for the August index value.
- Survey director Richard Curtin was quoted as saying: “Never before in the history of the surveys have so many consumers spontaneously mentioned negative aspects of the government’s role.”
According to the recent Small Business Optimism Index, calculated by the National Federation of Independent Business:
- The July index fell .9 points to 89.9, the fifth month in a row the index has dropped.
- The small business productivity rate also declined in the second quarter, the first time since the onset of the Great Recession that productivity has dropped two quarters in a row.
- The index is at its lowest level since last September.
- Reasons for the drop include higher labor costs, the expectation of lower sales, the inability to raise prices in a sluggish economy, and worries about increased taxes and government regulation.
According to recent results from Gallup’s Weekly Economic Confidence Index:
- The first week of August results saw the index plunge to -53, the lowest level since the middle of the recession in March, 2009.
- This index result of -53 is down from an index of -43 two weeks ago and -34 from a month ago.
- The index has gone steadily down over the five weeks after being relatively constant for the past few months.
- The -53 index is substantially worse than the -29 index from the same time last year.
- The index combines two measurements : do Americans think the economy is getting better or worse and how do they rate current economic conditions.
- 77% of Americans said the domestic economy is getting worse in the latest week’s polling, up from 71% two weeks ago and 64% a month ago.
- It is up substantially from 59% who felt the same way a year ago. In 2010 these results were trending to a positive feeling about the economy while the 2011 results are trending unfavorably about how Americans feel about the economy.
- The percentage of American rating the current economic situation as poor was up to 55% in the latest weekly poll, up from 49% two weeks ago and 45% a month ago.
- This compares with 45% of survey respondents rating economic conditions as poor the same time last year.
These negative results and negative trends are consistent across all subgroups and demographics.The numbers from overseas are not that great either, according to a recent Arab Zogby poll:
- The United States and President Obama’s favorable ratings in the Arab world are at an all time low.Obama is less popular in the Middle East than Iran’s President Ahmadinejad. This has to be the biggest insult anyone has given the President.
- Killing Osama Bin Laden has not improved the U.S. standing in the region.
- The majority of those surveyed viewed “U.S. interference in the Arab world as the greatest obstacle to peace and stability in the Middle East.”
- The top concern of those surveyed is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with many blaming the occupation of Palestine on the United States.
- In five of the six countries where the survey was conducted, the U.S. was viewed less favorably than Turkey, China, France, and Iran.
- Iran’s policies are viewed more favorably than the polices of the United States, another blow to President Obama’s handling of our relations with the Arab world.
In the wake of these horrific trends, findings, and and declining confidence, what has the American political class been doing recently:
- Last week President Obama hosted the World Series champs, the 2010 San Francisco Giants at the White House.
- This week the President hosted the 2011 Super Bowl champs the Green Bay Packers, at the ,White House.
- The President has attended a number of reelection campaign fundraisers.
- As far as Congress and its members are concerned, we have no idea what they are doing since they are treating themselves to a five week vacation.
Disgraceful, rather than working on solutions to the the problems underlyng these hideous survey results, these issues have been shunted aside in order for our political class and its members to work on their personal goals, issues, and relaxation. The country is in crisis and it seems everyone in the country recognizes that we are in crisis, as the survey results prove, EXCEPT for our sitting politicians.
Three years into this horrible economic situation and the political class does not even seem interested in trying to understand why everything they have done in this area has failed in order to maybe come up with something that will actually work. Three years into this Presidency and it has somehow been able to make the United States look worse in the Arab world than the Bush administration. Three years into this Presidency and the Arab world actually has a higher opinion of Iran and its nutty leader than the United States. Three years into this Presidency and the United States has been displaced or shortly will be displaced as the strongest economic power in the world by China in the minds of Americans and others.
Given the terrible quagmire the politicians have gotten the nation and its citizens, it is not to soon to start figuring out how we can dump all incumbents up for election next year out of office. Why? Simple question. Simple answer: how much worse could it get to put all new people into office in Washington?
Not since the Carter administration have we seen everything be so negative. In fact, it may not have been this bad during the Carter administration, which, if true, is another amazing fact since the country’s confidence and economic well-being got hammered really bad during those dark times of stagflation and oil crises. We have allowed some very small thinking people to get hold of the political processes in this country and to manipulate the processes to put themselves in perpetual office.
Thus, it is time to 1) repeat the 2010 success of dumping incumbents out of office but this time making sure the dump truck is more effective in removing incumbents and 2) start the urgent process of instituting a Constitution amendment process to put term limits into the Constitution. We cannot afford to keep sending the same people back to Washington that resulted in the atrociously negative findings discussed above.
We need to adopt the campaign slogan of “Grumpy” the clown, the famous Brazilian clown that was elected to the Brazilian Congress under the campaign slogan: “It can’t get any worse.” Given the negative trending numbers above, I’m afraid Grump is right when it comes to the American political class.
Walter “Bruno” Korschek is the author of the book, “Love My Country, Loathe My Government – Fifty First Steps To Restoring Our Freedom and Destroying The American Poltiical Class,” which is available at http://www.loathemygovernment.com and online at Amazon and Barnes & Noble. Our daily dialog on freedom in American can be joined at http://www.loathemygovernment.blogspot.com
Question by honesty_counts: What happened to this? (Prediction for 2008: the housing market will recover and another stock market bull run?
What happened to this? (Prediction for 2008: the housing market will recover and another stock market bull run after it hits a low of 12000. America is rich; foreigners will continue to trust us)
I just read this prediction that was given just a few months ago.
And this was a MAJOR economist talking, not just some idiot.
So what happened?
And who the heck is Dick Cheney, and why does he have so many Swiss Bank accounts?
Best answer:
Answer by Nipsy J
What happened? MAJOR economist was clearly wrong.
What happened? Goldman Sachs said oil was going to $ 200 a barrel just a few months ago.
“Experts” will say whatever they have to at the time to grab the headlines.
Add your own answer in the comments!
Categories: America Prediction Tags: About, America, America Article, CNN, cnn poll, Debt Ceiling, Drum Beat, Early August, Economic News, Economic Numbers, Everywhere, Good, Hard Core, International Reputation, International Survey, just, National Debt, Negative, Negative Trends, Numbers, Percentage Points, Pessimism, Pew Research, Recession, Survey Found That, Trends, Unemployment Rate, zogby poll
Expert Predicts August CPI
Article by jianglanbo0607
Early August to the national development and reform commission, the person in charge of the price department has said, from cyclical fluctuations law and the QiaoWei factors decline situation, this operation price running are close to a turning point. But 29, and says to the national development and reform commission and the general price level could still run high. August macro economic data will be published next month to 9, and CPI for years last month whether high positive and negative aspects of the trigger different, many experts argue, institution agree on August CPI increase forecast will be lower than in July, August CPI increase judgment of between 6% and 6.2%, from which long run, inflation pressure still not optimistic.The current global liquidity loose, international market commodity prices still place high input sex, inflation, domestic production cost upward pressure on prices of resource factors, the contradiction, will increase inflation factor advance. Deputy director of the development research center of the state council LiuShiJin said yesterday, at present, China’s imported inflation pressure is weakened, but cost inflation is not the type short-term phenomenon. From short-term economic situation terms, prices began in August fell gradually. But from the long-term perspective, inflation pressures will still continue to exist in a certain extent.The state statistics bureau chief economist YaoJingYuan think in August, the prices will drop, mainly is QiaoWei factors, but should pay attention to the new upward factor. For a few months after the movements of the price stability, he said, very difficult, there is imported inflation pressure, cost to promote the unfavorable factors. But on the other hand, positive factors also many, the grain problem, production will not have a great influence on prices.”Since 2006, China’s food price cycle largely represents the pork prices cycle. This pork prices up most of the cycle of the process has been completed, and the fourth quarter may turn to decline. Three quarters year-on-year increase process CPI speed could fall is relatively slow, and then will enter the relatively clear down the tubes.” Anxi securities chief economist, says high good.Turning brokers like shenyin &wanguo securities research institute LiHuiYong analysts think, chief macro because pork prices slowed, inflation pressure to reduce the input type and policy control effect, August CPI appeared surge will begin entering the down the tubes.Citic securities chief economist ZhuJianFang analysis, the domestic food prices has slowed sharply in July, pork prices are expected to remain stable, years of inflation pressure drop and input in July may well be years CPI high.The bank’s chief economist lu county think in August, the CPI is expected to grow by 6.1%. He further said, according to public data has calculation, August CPI annulus comparing may at 0.1-0.4%, 0.25% in value between. But because this month QiaoWei drop about 0.6% compared with last month, up 6.0 6.2% will fall into the interval, median 6.1%, more July down 0.4%.Red ear securities chief economist ShenJianGuang forecast, August CPI is up 6.2%, because the ministry of commerce of data showing that in August, the pork prices up 0.1% month-on-month, obviously lower than the 11.7% rise in July, besides food by November, poultry, aquatic products prices have risen by annulus comparing all not as good as in July.Traffic bank’s chief economist announced today, even flat blog says August CPI increase about 6.0% year-on-year in July, is expected to peak is years in August, the CPI to drop back in September, will continue to drop, inflection point in three quarter form. He says: “according to the ministry of commerce and the ministry of agriculture of the monitoring data, since August edible agricultural products prices are generally stable operation, and considering the CPI QiaoWei factors in August than in July, we drop of 0.6% in August compared to the initial judgment CPI increase at 6.0%, and may be expected in July, will be the year of the CPI high in August, falling in September, will continue to drop, inflection point in three quarter form.”Bank of America merrill lynch economists LiuTing, China is expected to August CPI and PPI are highs, and from value added of industry and fixed asset investment will continue to slow, further proof that China’s economic trend to a soft landing.Goldman sachs asset management company chairman Jim o ‘neill, he thinks, China in August CPI inflation may be lower than 6%.Traffic bank released today August macro data to predict report, the third quarter rise compared to the CPI form, “we preliminary judgment inflection point in August CPI increase about 6.0% year-on-year in May, is expected to July to the top of the CPI is years to drop back in August, September will continue to fall back.”According to the census bureau CaiJia rules of the CPI, monthly price actual CaiJia period is from the end of last month later this month. We think, can approximate think is last month 25 to about 25 th this month. According to the July 25 to August 25 for this time of high frequency price changes situation, the August food prices rise may be less than the annulus July, and we will be August CPI year-on-year growth down to 6.2%.”
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Question by Rich: How will Bank of America shareholders vote for the acquisition of Merrill Lynch?
Bank of America has set its shareholder vote on December 5, 2008.
Do you think Bank of America will definitely acquire Merrill Lynch? What is your prediction?
Best answer:
Answer by Deeni
I sure hope they vote yes. I work for ML and I could be out of a job otherwise. Scary times!!
Give your answer to this question below!
Categories: America Prediction Tags: August, Chief Economist, Commodity Prices, Cpi Increase, Cyclical Fluctuations, Early August, Economic Data, Economic Situation, expert, Food Price, Global Liquidity, Grain Problem, Inflation Factor, Inflation Pressure, Inflation Pressures, market commodity, Negative Aspects, Pork Prices, Predicts, Price Stability, State Statistics Bureau, Term Perspective, Upward Pressure
