Expert Predicts August CPI

Article by jianglanbo0607

Early August to the national development and reform commission, the person in charge of the price department has said, from cyclical fluctuations law and the QiaoWei factors decline situation, this operation price running are close to a turning point. But 29, and says to the national development and reform commission and the general price level could still run high. August macro economic data will be published next month to 9, and CPI for years last month whether high positive and negative aspects of the trigger different, many experts argue, institution agree on August CPI increase forecast will be lower than in July, August CPI increase judgment of between 6% and 6.2%, from which long run, inflation pressure still not optimistic.The current global liquidity loose, international market commodity prices still place high input sex, inflation, domestic production cost upward pressure on prices of resource factors, the contradiction, will increase inflation factor advance. Deputy director of the development research center of the state council LiuShiJin said yesterday, at present, China’s imported inflation pressure is weakened, but cost inflation is not the type short-term phenomenon. From short-term economic situation terms, prices began in August fell gradually. But from the long-term perspective, inflation pressures will still continue to exist in a certain extent.The state statistics bureau chief economist YaoJingYuan think in August, the prices will drop, mainly is QiaoWei factors, but should pay attention to the new upward factor. For a few months after the movements of the price stability, he said, very difficult, there is imported inflation pressure, cost to promote the unfavorable factors. But on the other hand, positive factors also many, the grain problem, production will not have a great influence on prices.”Since 2006, China’s food price cycle largely represents the pork prices cycle. This pork prices up most of the cycle of the process has been completed, and the fourth quarter may turn to decline. Three quarters year-on-year increase process CPI speed could fall is relatively slow, and then will enter the relatively clear down the tubes.” Anxi securities chief economist, says high good.Turning brokers like shenyin &wanguo securities research institute LiHuiYong analysts think, chief macro because pork prices slowed, inflation pressure to reduce the input type and policy control effect, August CPI appeared surge will begin entering the down the tubes.Citic securities chief economist ZhuJianFang analysis, the domestic food prices has slowed sharply in July, pork prices are expected to remain stable, years of inflation pressure drop and input in July may well be years CPI high.The bank’s chief economist lu county think in August, the CPI is expected to grow by 6.1%. He further said, according to public data has calculation, August CPI annulus comparing may at 0.1-0.4%, 0.25% in value between. But because this month QiaoWei drop about 0.6% compared with last month, up 6.0 6.2% will fall into the interval, median 6.1%, more July down 0.4%.Red ear securities chief economist ShenJianGuang forecast, August CPI is up 6.2%, because the ministry of commerce of data showing that in August, the pork prices up 0.1% month-on-month, obviously lower than the 11.7% rise in July, besides food by November, poultry, aquatic products prices have risen by annulus comparing all not as good as in July.Traffic bank’s chief economist announced today, even flat blog says August CPI increase about 6.0% year-on-year in July, is expected to peak is years in August, the CPI to drop back in September, will continue to drop, inflection point in three quarter form. He says: “according to the ministry of commerce and the ministry of agriculture of the monitoring data, since August edible agricultural products prices are generally stable operation, and considering the CPI QiaoWei factors in August than in July, we drop of 0.6% in August compared to the initial judgment CPI increase at 6.0%, and may be expected in July, will be the year of the CPI high in August, falling in September, will continue to drop, inflection point in three quarter form.”Bank of America merrill lynch economists LiuTing, China is expected to August CPI and PPI are highs, and from value added of industry and fixed asset investment will continue to slow, further proof that China’s economic trend to a soft landing.Goldman sachs asset management company chairman Jim o ‘neill, he thinks, China in August CPI inflation may be lower than 6%.Traffic bank released today August macro data to predict report, the third quarter rise compared to the CPI form, “we preliminary judgment inflection point in August CPI increase about 6.0% year-on-year in May, is expected to July to the top of the CPI is years to drop back in August, September will continue to fall back.”According to the census bureau CaiJia rules of the CPI, monthly price actual CaiJia period is from the end of last month later this month. We think, can approximate think is last month 25 to about 25 th this month. According to the July 25 to August 25 for this time of high frequency price changes situation, the August food prices rise may be less than the annulus July, and we will be August CPI year-on-year growth down to 6.2%.”

Question by Rich: How will Bank of America shareholders vote for the acquisition of Merrill Lynch?
Bank of America has set its shareholder vote on December 5, 2008.
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Answer by Deeni
I sure hope they vote yes. I work for ML and I could be out of a job otherwise. Scary times!!

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